Here's another ball-tearer:
Debus said, with great fanfare mind you, that they had a report saying fish stocks increased in 2005 in SIMP after Sanctuary Zones got bigger there.? He specifically said that snapper were bigger and there were more of them in 2005.? Someone pointed out that snapper were currently booming down the South Coast as well.? The reply - "that's just a seasonal fluctuation"?

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Well, I've had a quick read of the "preliminary article" that we were provided, and guess what?? The results look suspiciously seasonal to me too?

- For snapper, stocks remain fairly constant for 2002, 2003, 2004, with a sudden spike in 2005 (seasonal?)
- For bream, the "mean density" appears to fall fron 2002-2004 before spiking again in 2005 (seasonal?)
- The "spillover effect" SIMPLY HASN'T HAPPENED for red morwong.? Numbers in Santuary zones apparently increased, but adjacent and outside there was sweet bugger-all impact.
Some quotes from the report:
- on the increase in red morwong:? "Unfortunately, there was no 'before' data to provide a definitive conclusion that these differences were due to sanctuary zoning, and significant variation was due to the aggregation behaviour of red morwong".
- on snapper:? "It is early days in the monitoring program, but
IF (emphasis added) there is a sanctuary zone influence to this response, or a subsequent benefit within sanctuary zones, then surveys over the the next few years should help confirm this".
- on bream:? "Bream, which are popularly fished, were consistently in greater densities at some sites that were not in sanctuary zones for the first few years... and indicates that these sites may be more suitable for, or preferred by, bream than the sanctuary zone sites"? EVEN THE FISH DON'T WANT TO USE THE NESTING BOXES!!!
- on bream again:? "Other benefits of the zones were less equivocal during the 3 years since rezoning... but this may change in time".
- discussion on overall report:? "However, different sites within the sanctuary zones are responding differently and a consistent response cannot be assumed"
- another great comment on increase in snapper numbers:? "There are a number of possible reasons for this increase, including:
- nattural variation in recruitment &/or migration with a good year of recruitment and/or survivorship in about 2002 and a good year for migration to these reefs in 2005
- increase in minimum size (28cm to 30cm) in 2001
- sanctuary zone effects - the majority of snapper caught in this area are 3 to 4 years old (Ferrell & Sumpton) and it is now 3 years after the current plan came into force
- no trawling (in Habitat Protection Zone) in shallow inshore waters <20m deep in SIMP where young recruits may be caught as by-catch
- buy-out of key fish trappers from SIMP in 2002
- other ecological and biophysical reasons"
So there you have it folks.? Another "scientific report" the MPA and Government will use to prove the benefits of marine parks and sanctuary zones, which, in my opinion, does anything but prove that.? You can bet your life this report will be pushed heavily in the media.? The extreme greens will love it.?
I'll leave these with you to draw your own conclusions.? I have the report scanned if anyone wants a copy to read.? As Tarki says, "over to you".